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Network Economy Practices
Case Study: selling subscriptions online
| BUSINESS FOCUS |
Retail sales of magazine subscriptions |
| COMPANY IDENTITY |
Confidential |
| NATURE OF WEB BUSINESS |
New business focused on the selling on the Web. No legacy business.
Focused on early growth and building market position quickly. |
| FUNDING/OWNERSHIP |
Venture funded |
| # EMPLOYEES |
Approximately 30 |
| REVENUES |
Undisclosed - not profitable |
| DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL |
Web |
| TOOLS USED |
Vignette for Content Delivery
Andromedia for Site statistics
InterWorld for e-commerce
BMC Patrol for monitoring and administrative maintenance |
| DATE OF CASE STUDY |
August, 1998 |
| KEY OBSERVATIONS |
-
Business focus -- grow and gain share: Like
many web companies that are having early success, this firm has chosen
an narrow, well focused market where, once it has established an early
presence, the stage is set for creating a natural monopoly. Consistent
with this basic business model, current focus is on gaining share quickly.
So, the primary effort is placed on increasing traffic. There is
less effort, currently, on retaining existing customers.
-
Measures of success: Since
the focus is on growth, the rate of increase in the number of page views
is critical. The site is currently attracting 50,000 page views a
day; they expect this to increase to three times that in six months.
Another important measure of success is the purchase rate of prospects
coming to the site through banner ads: currently around 50% of the visitors
coming to the site from ads on other sites turn into customers.
-
Advertising -- powerful tool for bringing new
visitors in -- less interesting as a revenue source: This
company finds that click through ads on OTHER company's sites are an effective
way to build traffic -- but has found that controlling activity on their
OWN home page is so critical that they are actually considering reducing
or curtailing adverting on their own site.
-
Customer life cycle efforts:
Since the emphasis is on reaching out to new users, only modest efforts
have been made to date to increase revenues from existing users.
-
Use of content: The company
creates original content to draw attention to special offers and to particular
magazines. The role of the content in creating the site's success
is complex: magazines featured in the content do not translate directly
into sales. The role of the content is appears to the company to
be subtler, having more to do with establishing "place" and identity for
the site.
-
Syndication, Affiliates: Another
effect of the emphasis on building traffic is that the company is very
interested in building a strong "affiliate" program of other companies
that make money by click-throughs from small ads placed on their site.
|
|
Background and Business Model
The company was created in 1993 as a subsidiary of a well established magazine.
The initial idea was to publish articles electronically, on Gopher (!)
-- as a way to get additional magazine subscriptions. In these early
days of the business, having the ability to post articles electronically
was unusual. Consequently, the business evolved into a hosting and
publishing operation for 200 magazines and newspapers. The company
became a kind of early, super ISP with specialized technology to support
publishing.
It was clear that these 200 clients would soon set up their own publishing
operations, and that selling outsourcing for the entire publishing process
was not a viable business over the long run. New management came
on board, with a new vision: review magazines, focus on key articles,
and help publishers sell subscriptions. Sort of like a Publishers
Clearinghouse with a different twist -- replace Ed McMahon, big prizes,
and sheets of stamps with information, consistently low prices, convenience,
and broad selection.
Key Current Business Issues and Approach to Market
The number of principal periodical suppliers is relatively small; success
in this area depends on establishing strong relationships with these suppliers.
Since the publishers will probably deal with only a small number of outlets,
the critical early objective has been to build customer awareness and market
share quickly. All other considerations have necessarily been secondary.
The key web business tactics used to date to build share and early position
have been:
-
Targeted banner ads on portal sites.
-
Guaranteed lowest prices.
-
A focus on efficiency and high-performance in the site design.
-
Use of a search engine to make access to the desired magazine as easy as
possible. If it takes too long to find the magazine the customer
is interested in, the business could quickly lose the potential
customer.
-
Use of editorial content on the home page and throughout the site -- once
the customer is there to buy a particular magazine, create interest in
other magazines.
-
Recommendations of related magazines: If you buy Car and Driver,
you might also be interested in Road and Track.
Ads: Building Traffic
This company does all of its advertising on the web. These ads are
critical to the business' success because they help the company find "pre-qualified"
buyers. It does this by buying keywords on search sites that can
be tied to banner ads for related magazines. For example, if you do a search
including the keyword "poodle," they put up a banner ad for Dog Fancy.
The company has found that if a prospective customer responds to one of
these contextual ads, and "clicks through" the advertisement to the company's
home page, the odds of completing a sale approach 50%. So long as
this model continues to work, it is clear that the key to near term growth
is simply getting more magazine ads, in context, in front of more interested
buyers.
Interestingly, this raises questions about use of advertising on the
company's OWN site. The company currently has a revenue stream from
sales of banner ads. But advertising takes prospects AWAY from the
company's site. That fact, combined with the apparent effectiveness
of sales when prospects are ON the site, is causing the company to revisit
the decision to sell ad space. One key question, to which they do
not yet have a firm answer, is how many sales come from magazine promotions
and information that customers see after getting to the company's
home page. In other words, are the sales primarily because people
see a banner ad, are interested in a particular magazine, and then come
to the site to simply execute a sale? Or is there substantial selling
-- and further decisions to buy -- that happen once the prospect arrives
at the site? Such questions are not easy, and require sophisticated
data collection and metrics.
Content
The company makes a substantial investment in reviewing current magazines,
writing about them, featuring "hot" articles, and in other ways creating
original content related to their core business focus. This content
is what gives the site its unique flavor, making it an interesting "place."
The company is certain that the success of the site is due in part to
this content. In reviewing the site, Fastwater agrees: if you
imagine the site without content -- simply a list of magazines and subscription
prices -- no reviews or feature stories -- it seems clear that the site
would be much less inviting, less likely to create "trust" in the buyer,
and therefore much less able to sustain the strong success rate of completing
sales once a buyer arrives at the site after clicking on banner ad.
As it stands, the content helps ensure that, when you arrive at the site,
you are engaged, interested, and willing to stay, dig deeper, and proceed
with your sale.
It is difficult, however, for the company to make specific connections
between content and sales. For example, they have found that a feature
article on a particular magazine does not translate into an immediate spike
in subscriptions for that magazine. Or, consider the fact that the
company has discovered that 25% of the visitors to the site use the search
engine to take them to a specific destination, rather than browsing around
the site using navigation aids. Although this does not in any way
show that content is not important, it does suggest that a substantial
number of visitors have a specific goal in mind as they arrive at the site;
they are not coming to the site to browse and read.
Such observations raise important questions for this company.
Like any other web startup, they need to try to maximize earnings from
each dollar spent today while at the same time building a position that
is defensible and capable of supporting growth in the future. Today,
in the early stages of growth, the company is focused more on building
share than on creating community or on maximizing sales from a given buyer.
It is reasonable to expect that as the company matures, as it succeeds
in establishing a leading market position, this focus will shift to community
and maximizing revenues over the customer life cycle -- and that the content
investment made today will be critical to that future success. What
is the best way to allocate resources today while still setting up structures
that lead to the future? The company is aware of these questions;
they are the topics for a lot of internal discussion. The company
also understands that getting answers to such questions will involve collecting
more detailed customer data over time.
Getting to Know the Customer
The company offers a newsletter to interested customers, coupled with a
special area of the website that is available only to such registered visitors.
This provides the company with a way of getting "permission" to send certain
customers information about new offers, new magazine articles, and other
information that could bind these buyers more tightly to the company, ensuring
that their future purchases are from the company's web site. To date
the company has not used this mechanism as a way to do direct selling --
making specific offers that might be of interest to the buyer. The
focus has been restricted to delivering interesting, general information
about articles appearing in magazines.
The company also offers a chat site where customers can talk about any
one of a couple of dozen topics, ranging from current news to topics covered
in bridal magazines. The chat site does get used, but has not yet
turned into a tool that the company can use for extending the customer
life cycle or for increasing revenues per customer. As with other
dimensions of the business, the company has put infrastructure in place
to support subsequent stages of growth, but is focused primarily on the
initial task of growing share.
Syndication/ICE
Because the company has had success in selling magazines when they can
put the right offer in front of a prospect who has already expressed interest
in a certain topic, it is natural for them to be looking at establishing
an "affiliate" program that would reward other companies for helping connect
prospects and magazines. For example, a newspaper running a regular
feature on automobiles could include a small advertisement for Car and
Driver, leading to the magazine subscription home page. The newspaper
would share in the revenues of any sales.
Amazon, among others, has successfully established such affiliate programs.
The difference, however, is that the price of books doesn't change frequently,
whereas magazine subscription prices change all the time. The company
is therefore looking to the ICE (Information and Content Exchange) standard
as a critically important tool that will enable them to provide affiliates
with up-to-date information. (ICE is an XML based initiative to make
it easier for companies to create systems that support automated inter-website
sharing of transactions and content.)
Collecting Customer Data
This company, like many other startups, is generating questions as it generates
growth. How much advertising should we accept? How much of
our sales are to returning customers rather than new ones? How much
of the "buy" decision happens before the person ever reaches the site?
How much is due to our content? What are the most important roles
for the content, in general? How can we most effectively sell to
people who have been willing to give us e-mail addresses so that we can
send them things?
All of these questions point to a need to collect customer data and,
later, to building or buying tools that will help the company analyze the
data. Fastwater divides customer data collection into four different
categories (see the issue of Fastwater
Rapids that describes these distinctions in more detail):
-
General Site Usage Metrics: how
many people visit the site, where to they come from, when do they visit
it, and so on.
-
Navigation Patterns and Diagnostics:
once they are on the site, what do they do there? How do they move
through the site?
-
Data to Drive Content Delivery in Response to
the Customer: at the simplest level, this consists of making
decisions about content (ads, articles, lists of related links, and so
on) on the basis of the previous pages, purchases, and so on. At
the most complex level it includes previous history with the customer,
including information about the customer coming from sources other than
the web.
-
Lifecycle Information: historical
data for numerous customers is aggregated to produce insights and metrics
with regard to the purchasing patterns of typical kinds of customers over
time.
This company, like many others, is currently focusing most of its data
collection energy on the first and second levels of this hierarchy:
they collect solid statistics about site usage so that they can understand
where their customers are coming from and evaluate the effectiveness of
different advertising programs. They collect some basic information
about navigation patterns to ensure that use of the site is easy and efficient.
Because this company uses Vignette to deliver the content, they have
the capability to deliver customized content based on user profiles (3rd
level of the customer data hierarchy). In fact, they used to do this.
If you were a returning customer, they would look you up in a database
and use the home page to promote magazines related to your earlier purchases.
Interestingly, they found that the computation demands of this process
were not necessarily repaid in increased sales. They chose to focus
on fast response rather than customized responses. As they install
new, more powerful server hardware that enables them to provide both rapid
response and custom content, they will revisit this issue so that
they can better understand what works and what doesn't.
When a customer does make a purchase, this company offers "you might
also be interested in" information. Because the number of magazines
is relatively small, and the associations are pretty straightforward, the
company is currently doing this through rules that they have developed
on their own. Since the new version of Vignette includes NetPerceptions,
a product that automatically generates recommendations, the company will
use NetPerceptions to do this work in the future.
The company is most aware of the value of also collecting data that
would give them a broader picture of the customer life cycle. But
there are only so many hours in the day, and only so many people to do
the work. The company has decided to focus on immediate growth first.
Broader understanding of how their customers buy and how their business
works will have to wait. First things first.
Lessons for Others
-
Tying business model to strategy and to market:
This company is operating in a market where long term success depends on
access to a scarce resource: strong working relationships with a
few key publishers. The market is therefore one that favors early
entrants who can create these relationships. Solidifying those relationships
depends on being able to produce results for those key publishers, and
that, in turn requires building web presence quickly.
This is therefore a business where an all out focus on building share,
without paying too much attention to immediate costs, make a lot of sense:
there is a substantial, defensible prize for winning the race.
We note that the critical element in this model is that there is a scarce
resource that can be dominated and defended by early entrants. Companies
who cannot quickly create real barriers to entry by newcomers will not
necessarily have the same success with an "initial growth at all costs"
strategy.
-
Appropriate positioning of advertising in the
business model: There are businesses built around selling
advertising. Portals are a good example in the consumer market, VerticalNet
is a good example in the business-to-business space. And then there
are businesses built around selling something else, be it books, magazine
subscriptions, or stocks. We tend to be concerned when companies
fundamentally in the business of selling "something else" lean too heavily
on advertising to make the pieces of their business model fit. The
company examined in this case study illustrates that, when you are succeeding
at selling goods, you may even end up questioning the contribution of advertising
sales to your revenues.
-
The role of content in a web business model:
This study shows that it can be indirect, and notoriously difficult
to assess. In some ways, there is nothing new here: newspapers
and magazines have, for hundreds of years, dealt with the fact that content
is not directly tied to revenues, and yet is, at the same time, absolutely
essential to revenues and success over the long run. But, for this
site, and for e-commerce sites in general, it is not clear that such analogies
are completely applicable. A website is not just a publication
-- it is, for many vendors, a place to buy things. But it is also
not just a store, with a list of goods to be sold. In some
way, a web site needs to become a "place" that is familiar and trusted.
What is the role of content in creating "place?" The point
for other readers is that they should not be surprised when such questions
arise with regard to their own sites. In fact, they might consider
being concerned if such questions aren't popping up. We believe
that a company's ability to make direct, measurable connections between
content and commerce will emerge as a requirement for success in web commerce.
-
Collecting and using customer data:
Data collection is constrained by the realities of limited hardware
capacity and limited human bandwidth to look at, understand, and analyze
the data. Like many other companies, this one is currently
only making use of basic data collection and analysis capabilities.
The critical need to focus on gaining share, early, means that concern
with customer life cycles will wait until a bit later.
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